1. CropsProfit Help Centre
  2. CropsProfit Methodology

What is uncertain harvest?

  • It is that part of your harvest you are not sure you can deliver to buyers (pre-harvest, that is before your crop is harvested).
  • As you get closer to your harvest time your Uncertain Harvest will become smaller when you make your Deliverable Harvest % bigger. 
  • Example-1: If your Total Harvest is 1000 tons and your Deliverable Harvest is 0%, then CropsProfit calculates your Uncertain Harvest as 1000 tons and your Certain Harvest as 0 tons.
  • Example-2: If your Total Harvest is 1000 tons and your Deliverable Harvest is 20%, then CropsProfit calculates your Uncertain Harvest as 800 tons and your Certain Harvest as 200 tons.
  • A typical Uncertain Harvest marketing tool is a put option. The advantage of put options is that you can cancel them if you need to because there is no compulsory delivery on this type of contract.
  • The cost of put options is typically the cost of “at the money put options”. Make sure to regularly update this cost by tapping on a season, then the update button at the bottom of the season detail screen and under Marketing Tools tap on the Uncertain Harvest button. Get a quote from your registered trader and ask him/her to update it regularly as a member of your team.